Every four years, the U.S. presidential election usually comes down to a few swing states that decide the winner. While social media can’t predict who the winner will be, analyzing consumer behavior on social media serves as a barometer for determining how people in those swing states are feeling.
How are people feeling in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin? Here are the insights we found.
Swing State Tweets Mentioning Voting, 3-4 Weeks Out From The Election
|Swing State||Mentions of “Vote” 3-4 Weeks Out From the 2020 Election||% Change Compared To 3-4 weeks Before the 2016 Election|
Methodology: Looking at the volume of Tweets in Swing states using the word “Vote” or “Voting” 3-4 weeks out from election in 2020 compared to in 2016, meaning October 6-19, 2020 compared to October 5-18, 2016.
Swing States Are Tweeting 402% More About Voting Than In 2016
In the 3-4 weeks before the presidential election (Oct 6-19), Swing states are talking about voting 402% more than the same time period in 2016, and 111% more than during the 2018 midterm elections. With record early voting turnouts across the country, it’s no surprise more people are talking about getting out the vote.
Just Like In 2016, Swing States Are Talking More About Trump and Voting Than His Opponent
3-4 weeks before the election in 2016, there were 563,180 Tweets in swing states talking about Donald Trump and Voting, compared to 132,337 Tweets talking about Hillary Clinton and Voting in those states. In 2020, with the added advantage of Donald Trump having the platform of the presidency to amplify his messaging, that gap against his Democratic opponent has only widened. This year, there were 2,477,512 Tweets talking about Voting and Trump compared to 543,809 Tweets talking about Voting and Joe Biden in Swing states in the 3-4 weeks before election day.
That’s not to say any Tweet talking about Donald Trump and Voting is inherently a positive for him, it often isn’t; but it’s more likely to be a Tweet supporting him than a comparable Tweet talking about Joe Biden. For instance in the critical swing state of Florida, sentiment in Tweets mentioning Trump and Voting between October 6 -19, 2020 were 41% Negative and 18% Positive. While that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement; during the same time period in Florida, Tweets mentioning Voting around Joe Biden were 47% Negative and only 11% Positive.
There Are More Mentions in Swing States About Voting Blue Than Red
Volume of Vote ‘Red’ Or ‘Blue’ Tweets In Swing States
|State||Vote Red Tweets||Vote Blue Tweets|
Methodology: Looking at the volume of Tweets in Swing states between October 6 -19, 2020 that mentioned both ‘Vote’ and either the word ‘Blue’ or ‘Red’.
Between October 6 -19, 2020; there were 66,880 Tweets in Swing states about Voting Blue, which is 6% more Tweets than the 62,875 Tweets in Swing states talking about Voting Red. We’ve previously discussed how Donald Trump is far more successful than Joe Biden at growing his social media following, but that’s at a candidate level. This data suggests that Swing state voting could narrowly break for the Democrats and Joe Biden because of party affiliation, even if Swing state voters aren’t Joe Biden fans specifically.
The Twitter Conversation Around Voter Fraud Is Growing
Users in Swing states posted 294,375 Tweets about Voter Fraud between October 6-19, 2020, which was a 92% increase from the volume of Swing states Tweets about Voter Fraud 3-4 weeks out from the election in 2016, and a 79% increase from the amount of Swing state Tweets talking Voter Fraud 3-4 weeks before the 2018 Midterm elections. However, the elections break in Swing states on November 3, there’s a heightened level of concern that the other side isn’t going to accept the results.
Swing States Are Talking More About Early Voting
The New York Times reports that in 5 states, including the swing states of Wisconsin and Minnesota, the number of ballots returned is already more than 20% of the entire 2016 turnout; and the level of social media discussion definitely supports the idea that Early Voting is taking on an added importance during the pandemic. Three to four weeks before the 2020 election, there have been 196,854 Tweets in Swing States talking about Early Voting; up 121% from the volume of Tweets in those states discussing Early Voting 3-4 weeks before the 2018 midterms with that also being 1,113% more Tweets than discussed Early Voting 3-4 weeks before the 2016 elections.
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